New Orleans Sheriff’s Race Results – Final Poll 1/28/14

1.31.14

To: Interested Parties
From: WIN Partners, LLC
RE: Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race – Final Poll

NEW ORLEANS – In the final hours prior to Saturday’s election day, WIN Partners conducted a fourth and final poll of the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race, and this portion of the poll was conducted strictly for informational purposes. No candidate or campaign committee in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race authorized or paid for this poll.

QUESTION: If the election for Orleans Parish Sheriff were held today, who would you choose [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Quentin Brown 2. Charles Foti 3. Marlin Gusman 4. Ira Thomas

Quentin BROWN

Charles

FOTI

Marlin

GUSMAN

Ira

THOMAS

OVERALL

4.5%

28.3%

49.3%

18.0%

BLACK

5.2%

17.1%

60.7%

17.1%

WHITE

3.1%

44.0%

34.7%

18.1%

OTHER

7.1%

25.5%

39.8%

27.6%

Respondents Make Their Choice

In this final survey conducted only days from the opening of the polls on Saturday, respondents were forced to select a candidate for Sheriff as they would in the voting booth, without  an “undecided” option. With leaners now forced to choose, Sheriff Marlin Gusman approaches the magic 50%+1 mark that would avoid a March 15th run off election. As we noted last week, Gusman’s movement this week again outpaced his competitors, no doubt accelerated by somewhat surprising endorsements of the Times-Picayune and other trusted publications.

Foti Stalls; Gusman Accelerates

While still in second place, Foti’s previously-tracked ascent has now completely stalled. On the other hand, Gusman’s climb has only accelerated. Week-over-week, now pushing all voters to make a decision, Gusman has climbed nearly 11% and now sits on the precipice of a primary election victory. His lead with blacks now stretches more than 40% over his next closest challengers, Foti and Thomas. Among whites, Gusman maintains more than a third of the vote, while Foti leads without winning a majority. Considering Foti’s poor performance in the black community, and his lack of a majority in the white community, his chances of forcing a run-off now are significantly diminished. Continuing in third place, Ira Thomas has failed to move further voters into his corner. Without a significant presence on television or through other paid media channels, Thomas is becoming the forgotten man among the top three candidates, playing an additional role in Gusman’s rise.

Gusman Looks To Survive Through Aggressive Strategy

Now with only hours to go, Sheriff Gusman may be able to say he survived some of the worst press endured by any sitting New Orleans public official and emerged electorally intact. Over the past six months, Gusman’s thawing relationship with Mayor Landrieu, combined with his increasingly convincing public embrace of reform, seem to have lessened the civic rancor over his tenure in office. Furthermore, Gusman has deployed a powerful array of both positive, and negative, television advertising. The ads first introduced Gusman’s role in reform and then turned to pummel former Sheriff Foti’s decades in office. In plain terms, Gusman has clearly won the television ad war and is poised to enjoy the spoils of victory. Voters will have the final say on Saturday.

Sample and Methodology

The poll was conducted using IVR technology among a random citywide sample of 502 likely voters on January 28, 2014. Among the sample of 502 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.37%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to represent an electorate consisting of  55% Black, 40% White, and 5% Other ethnicity

See last week’s New Orleans Sheriff’s race poll here.

About WIN Partners, LLC:

WIN Partners is a New Orleans-based political and public affairs firm, specializing in messaging strategy, direct mail and digital marketing. In addition, WIN Partners assists clients in voter research, survey development and polling analysis in federal, state and municipal elections. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. For more information, please visit www.WINPartners.us and follow us on twitter @WINPartnersLLC.

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