NOLA Sheriff’s Poll – 2.26.14

To: Interested Parties
From: WIN Partners, LLC
RE: Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race – 2.26.14 Update

NEW ORLEANS – Now, with only two weeks to go until Election Day, a new WIN Partners survey shows a Sheriff’s race nearly cast in stone. In a sample taken on February 26th, almost three weeks after the first run-off test on February 4th, likely voters in New Orleans continue to prefer the re-election of Sheriff Marlin Gusman by a nearly 20 point margin over his competitor, former Sheriff Charles Foti. If there was any significant movement, it was among white voters where Gusman saw a modest 5% decline. This lowers Gusman’s overall lead to 19%, down from 22% just 21 days ago. Supporting Gusman’s lead is his powerful performance among black and other ethnic voters.

If there is any significant deltas, it is among “undecided” voters. To wit, the slight uptick in “undecideds,” could easily be assigned to slackening voter interest. However, Gusman is still heavily favored to win on March 15th. Neither campaign has seriously engaged their media machines up until this point, to the disadvantage of Mr. Foti. The gaping chasm between Foti and the leader, Sheriff Gusman, must seem ever more insurmountable to the challenger as the hours tick away toward Election Day.

QUESTION: If the election for Orleans Parish Sheriff were held today, who would you choose [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Charles Foti 2. Marlin Gusman 3. Undecided

Charles FOTI

Marlin GUSMAN

UNDECIDED

OVERALL

26.2%

45.3%

28.5%

BLACK

13.8%

59.1%

27.1%

WHITE

42.0%

30.1%

27.9%

OTHER

18.5%

32.5%

49.0%

Sample and Methodology

The poll was conducted using IVR technology among a random citywide sample of 866 likely voters on February 4, 2014. Among the sample of 866 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.33%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to represent an electorate consisting of  53% Black, 42% White, and 5% Other ethnicity

Download a PDF of this analysis here.

About WIN Partners, LLC:

WIN Partners is a New Orleans-based political and public affairs firm, specializing in messaging strategy, direct mail and digital marketing. In addition, WIN Partners assists clients in voter research, survey development and polling analysis in federal, state and municipal elections. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. For more information, please visit www.WINPartners.us and follow us on twitter @WINPartnersLLC.

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