FINAL Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race Poll – 3.11.14

3.13.14

To: Interested Parties
From: WIN Partners, LLC
RE: FINAL Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race – GUSMAN FOR THE WIN

Download this analysis for publication here.

NEW ORLEANS – On Tuesday, WIN Partners conducted a final survey of the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Runoff. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race, and this portion of the poll was conducted strictly for informational purposes. No candidate or campaign committee in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race authorized or paid WIN Partners for this poll.

With only 48 hours left before the polls open on Saturday morning, Sheriff Marlin Gusman is poised to score a dominant victory in the run-off for Orleans Parish Sheriff. He leads in our final poll 65%-35%. As we’ve noted throughout the race, Gusman has continued to maintain a sizable lead from the outset, and nearly pulled off a first-round victory (causing one commentator to preemptively declare Gusman the victor on February 1st).

Both media behemoths have lumbered into action in the run-off after Mardi Gras, pouring television and print media dollars into the eyes and ears of New Orleanians. Yet, the considerable agitation has barely moved the needle in either direction, to the advantage of incumbent Sheriff Gusman. Foti’s reconfigured media team turned up the heat in the run-off election, deploying testimonials from former opponents like Ira Thomas and other OPSO insiders. Simultaneously, Foti again went for the jugular with ads that were ripe with stark accusations of Gusman’s jail mismanagement and the potential fiscal consequences of Gusman’s reign. Conversely, Gusman played the role of the incumbent, trading blows with Foti over the former Sheriff’s similarly pock-marked administration while burnishing his credentials with testimonials from regional law men and popular elected allies.

Gusman’s lead is founded on the unwavering support of the African-American community now measuring 79%, both of the political rank, and of the average voter. That base is supplemented by Gusman’s good 47% performance in the white community, where his endorsement support is coupled with a strong undercurrent of rejection of former Sheriff Foti. Whether this can be attributed to lingering discontent over Foti’s handling of post-Katrina legal cases as Attorney General or souring memories of Foti’s long tenure as Sheriff is unclear.

Yet, what is clear today is that former Sheriff Foti will not shed the “former” from his title this year. Sheriff Gusman is poised to score a dramatic victory on Saturday, one that many political observers would have declared impossible not six months ago. Through the fires of the consent decree, public spats with the Mayor and other officials, and questions about fiscal control and planning at the Sheriff’s office, Marlin Gusman looks to have positioned himself to claim another four years as Orleans Parish Sheriff.

The voters will make the final call on Saturday.

See the final poll, and crosstabs on the next page:

QUESTION: If the election for Orleans Parish Sheriff were held today, who would you choose [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Charles Foti 2. Marlin Gusman

Charles

FOTI

Marlin

GUSMAN

OVERALL

34.8%

65.2%

BLACK

20.9%

79.1%

WHITE

52.5%

47.%

OTHER

33.6%

66.4%

REMINDER: Results from FINAL WIN Partners PRIMARY Poll versus actual results in Primary

Quentin

BROWN

Charles

FOTI

Marlin

GUSMAN

Ira

THOMAS

Final Poll

Actual Result

Final Poll

Actual Result

Final Poll

Actual Result

Final Poll

Actual Result

TOTAL:

4.5%

3.2%

28.3%

28.6%

49.3%

48.9%

18.0%

19.3%

Sample and Methodology

The poll was conducted using IVR technology among a random citywide sample of 765 likely voters on March 11, 2014. Among the sample of 765 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.54%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to represent an electorate consisting of  53% Black, 42% White, and 5% Other ethnicity

About WIN Partners, LLC:

WIN Partners is a New Orleans-based political and public affairs firm, specializing in messaging strategy, direct mail and digital marketing. In addition, WIN Partners assists clients in voter research, survey development and polling analysis in federal, state and municipal elections. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. For more information, please visit www.WINPartners.us and follow us on twitter @WINPartnersLLC.

 See our previous 2014 New Orleans Sheriff Polls Here:

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    FINAL Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Race Poll – 3.11.14

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