WIN Partners 2/4/14 Sheriff’s Run-Off Poll

NEW ORLEANS – A few days following the February 1st primary, WIN Partners conducted a poll on the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race, and this portion of the poll was conducted strictly for informational purposes. No candidate or campaign committee in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race authorized or paid for this poll.

After the primary election saw Sheriff Gusman fall just short of the 50%+1 threshold needed to avoid a run-off, a WIN Partners survey conducted February 4th showed little realignment among voters in favor of challenger Charles Foti. Gusman still polls nearly identically with his primary performance at 48% among those surveyed, while Charles Foti comes in at 27%, closely matching his primary numbers as well. It appears voters that chose either Mr. Brown or Mr. Thomas in the primary have not yet decided to back either of the two remaining competitors. This scenario continues to leave Gusman on the cusp of victory.  In WIN’s latest sample, 25% of those surveyed find themselves undecided on their run-off preference, leaving former Sheriff Foti with the slightest of chances of recapturing his former office if he somehow swept the undecided into his column.

Aside from that off-chance of upset, Sheriff Gusman continues to hold a commanding position in the race. While incumbents that fail to reach 50% in a primary are considered vulnerable, his 21% lead on Foti at this point gives him significant breathing room in the so-far comparatively low-volume run-off election intersected by the height of Carnival. Neither candidate has relaunched significant media buys, and without significant interceding events, the race for Sheriff appears to have reached homeostasis.

The final WIN Partners survey conducted a few days before the primary showed that Sheriff Gusman led Charles Foti 49.3% to 28.3%. Ultimately, when all the votes were counted on February 1st, Gusman led Foti 48.3% to 28.6%. Our survey had less than a 1% margin of error against the actual result.

QUESTION: If the election for Orleans Parish Sheriff were held today, who would you choose [CYCLE OPTIONS]:

1. Charles Foti 2. Marlin Gusman 3. Undecided

Charles

FOTI

Marlin

GUSMAN

UNDECIDED

OVERALL

26.7%

48.2%

25.1%

BLACK

13.4%

60.4%

26.2%

WHITE

43.8%

35.0%

21.2%

OTHER

24.1%

29.2%

46.7%

Sample and Methodology

The poll was conducted using IVR technology among a random citywide sample of 883 likely voters on February 4, 2014. Among the sample of 883 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.29%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to represent an electorate consisting of  53% Black, 42% White, and 5% Other ethnicity

About WIN Partners, LLC:

WIN Partners is a New Orleans-based political and public affairs firm, specializing in messaging strategy, direct mail and digital marketing. In addition, WIN Partners assists clients in voter research, survey development and polling analysis in federal, state and municipal elections. WIN Partners does not have a client in the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s race. For more information, please visit www.WINPartners.us and follow us on twitter @WINPartnersLLC.

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