2014 Orleans Parish Judicial Polling Recap

Date: November 5th, 2014

Oops, We Did It Again: WIN Polling Accurately Predicts Orleans Judicial Elections

NEW ORLEANS – For the third straight New Orleans political season, WIN Partners public polling once again nailed citywide races up and down the ballot. As WIN did for the Sheriff’s race this past winter, well-developed polling proved a reliable indicator of future results. Beginning with the Criminal District Court – Section D race, through the Civil District Court races, WIN polling correctly forecasted results well within the margin of error and in some cases with near perfect accuracy.

In the closely-watched Criminal District Court – Section D race between incumbent Judge Frank Marullo, Graham Bosworth, and Marie Williams, WIN polling suggested Marullo would be at the cusp of a primary-night victory at 47.5%, with Ms. Williams following twenty points behind and Mr. Bosworth nipping at her heels in third. Judge Marullo was re-elected with 51.3% of the vote, with Ms. Williams in second and Mr. Bosworth in a very close third.

8 days before yesterday’s election, WIN polling predicted a lead for incumbent Judge Chris Bruno over challenger Ruth Ramsey in the Civil District Court – Division F, 53-47%. After a surge of late spending by both camps, but especially by Judge Bruno, the result was a slightly larger margin for Judge Bruno over Ms. Ramsey, 56-44%.

Prognosticators suggested that incumbent Municipal Court Judge Paul Sens was favored to defeat former prosecutor Byron Williams for the open Criminal – Section G race. WIN polling painted a different picture, giving Mr. Williams a sizable 64-35% lead a week before the election. The final result differed little, with Mr. Williams winning 67.4% to Judge Sens 32.6%.

WIN polling on the Civil District Court – Domestic Section 2 race also tightly matched final results. WIN produced results indicating Ms. Monique Barial would finish first at 35.8%, followed by Ms. Janet Ahern and Ms. Michelle Scott-Bennett. The final results mapped closely to the polling.

In the Civil District Court – Division D race, WIN showed Ms. Nakisha Knott with a lead over incumbent Judge Lloyd Medley. After a heavy last-week barrage of negative advertising from both sides, Ms. Knott pulled steadily ahead and won convincingly 58-42%.

Finally, the Juvenile Court race ended with Ms. Desire Cook-Calvin finishing first in a run-off with frequent candidate Ernest “Freddie” Charbonnet. WIN Polling showed a very similar result, transposing Ms. Cook-Calvin and Mr. Charbonnet’s positions (but with results within the margin of error).

You can see the previous poll releases here (Crim-SecD, JuvCt), here (CDC-D, Crim-SecG) and here (CDC-F, CDC-DS2).

Question: If the election for Criminal District Court, Section D were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS] 1. Graham Bosworth 2. Frank Marullo 3. Marie Williams

  Graham BOSWORTH Frank MARULLO Marie WILLIAMS
Poll Result 24.7% 47.5% 27.8%
Final Result 24.3% 51.3% 24.4%
Delta .4% 3.7% 3.4%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 455 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 455 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.59%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

 

Question: If the election for Civil District Court Judge Division F were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Chris Bruno 2. Ruth Ramsey

  Chris BRUNO Ruth RAMSEY
Poll Result 52.8% 47.2%
Final Result 55.8% 44.2%
Delta 3% 3%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 528 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 528 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

 

Question: If the election for Civil District Court Judge Division D were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Paul Sens 2. Byron Williams

  Paul SENS Byron WILLIAMS
Poll Result 35.6% 64.4%
Final Result 32.6% 67.4%
Delta 3% 3%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 449 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 449 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

 

 

Question: If the election for Civil District Court Judge Division D were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Nakisha Ervin-Knott 2. Lloyd Medley

  Nakisha ERVIN-KNOTT Lloyd MEDLEY
Poll Result 50.6% 49.4%
Final Result 58% 42%
Delta 7.4% 7.4%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 566 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 566 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

 

Question: If the election for Civil District Court Judge, Domestic Section 2 were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS]: 1. Janet Ahern 2. Monique Barial 3. Michelle Scott-Bennett

  Janet AHERN Monique BARIAL Michelle SCOTT-BENNETT
Poll Result 34.5% 35.8% 29.7%
Final Result 34.4% 39.3% 26.3%
Delta .1% 3.5% 3.4%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 468 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 468 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.53%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

 

Question: If the election for Juvenile Court, Section E were held today, who would you support [CYCLE OPTIONS] 1. Jacqueline Carroll-Gilds 2. Ernest “Freddie” Charbonnet 3. Desiree Cook-Calvin 4. Yolanda King 5. “Niki” Roberts 6. Cynthia D. Samuel

  Jacqueline CARROLL-GILDS Ernest CHARBONNET Desiree COOK-CALVIN Yolanda KING Niki ROBERTS Cynthia SAMUEL
Poll 7.3% 24.2% 21.1% 18.2% 12.0% 17.2%
Final 6.5% 19.9% 27.9% 16.1% 15.1% 14.6%
Delta .8% 4.3% 6.8% 2.1% 3.1% 2.6%

Methodology: The poll was conducted among a random sample of 441 likely voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27th drawn from a pool of registered voters. Among the sample of 441 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.66%. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect city-wide turnout figures for gender, race, age and party.

About WIN Partners, LLC:

WIN Partners is a New Orleans-based political and public affairs firm, specializing in messaging strategy, multimedia and digital marketing. In addition, WIN Partners assists clients in voter research, survey development and polling analysis in federal, state and municipal elections. In the last year alone, WIN Partners’ played a critical role in the successful campaigns of Councilmember At-Large Stacy Head, Councilmembers LaToya Cantrell, Susan Guidry, and Jared Brossett, and in the election of New Orleans Coroner Jeffrey Rouse. WIN Partners does not have a client in any of the races polled.

 

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